Of all the myriad things the Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari did the more than 6-months he took to form his cabinet, the insecurity problem he expands, the economic hardship he propels and the torrents of corrupt officials that he pardons the one that is the most hurtful, the most horrifying, may also have been the most sensitive, the most heartbreaking. Buhari’s famous legacy will be his approval of the naira redesign, an idea incubated by the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, to remodel the ₦200, ₦500, and ₦1000 banknotes. In Emefiele’s economic thinking, the naira redesign will accelerate cashless policy, undo vote-buying, frustrate kidnappers’ ransom collection, and impact the country’s ailing economy. The idea was approved and launched by the President in the final moments of his presidency, on November 23, 2022, during a harsher moment of wanton poverty and a debt-ridden economy. The approval itself was not painful; currency redesign is a global best practice, a blessing to a nation’s economy.It was not Buhari’s intention that was questioned. The President appeared to be honest and credible, a sincere man who loves his country at heart. It was, by the standards of common Nigerians, who are drowning in the murky waters of poverty and inflation, amidst tighter election season, that the naira redesign policy (and its attendant deadlines) has been questioned.
Other than perhaps his naiveté and the daft endorsement of any “idea” that stems from his cabinet the authorization of the new notes symbolizes the traits that made Buhari Buhari. It does showcase what The Economist of London once referred to as his “eight dismal years.” It does prove the assessment of Eniola Bello, the editor of This Day Newspaper, that President Buhari “had all along been adorned in stolen robes.” It does further elucidate Professor Uman Yusuf’s assessment of the President’s leadership, questioning his conception of issues and it does explain why Professor Wole Soyinka had finally concluded that the Commander-In-Chief is “mentally delusional.”
That approval of Emefiele’s naira redesign has been questioned by objective minds on three grounds. The first is the purpose. For Emefiele, the value proposition of the policy is to stifle politicians from buying votes and to frustrate terrorists and kidnappers from using the ransom monies they collected from their victims. But when does the role of the CBN extend to politics and national security? Or is Emefiele offering a vote of no-confidence to the right agencies: INEC, NFIU, ICPC, EFCC, and the DSS?
The second is the deadline. Nowhere in the world has the phasing of new notes been conducted in a rush as it is being done in Nigeria by Emefiele and Buhari. The UK has just redesigned its £20 and £50 paper notes to polymer, and this has been done for more than two years (from February 2020 to September 2022). Even with the current Nigerian realities on the ground: the country’s broken technology, the fact that about 50% of the country’s economy is informal (micro-enterprises involving rural traders who transact millions of naira every day), and more than 30 million citizens are unbanked, the CBN Governor with the approval of his principle went ahead and “stampedes” the common, hardworking Nigerians.
The third is the “cashless policy” enforcement. Part of the reason for the mopping up of the old naira notes is the claim by the CBN Governor that there is too much naira outside of the “banking vaults,” which then follows that the cashless policy is enforced in Nigeria. But did Emefiele do his research well enough before embarking on this policy? The only yardstick for measuring “too much cash in circulation” in any country is by gauging what economists call the Cash-to-GDP ratio. The Chief Executive Officer of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf said that “Cash-to-GDP in Nigeria is one of the lowest, at only 1.5%, while cash to GDP in many advanced countries is between 5 and 10%.” Moreover, the current “money supply in Nigeria was about N51 trillion and the cash component of the money supply is only N3.3 trillion.”
Nigeria has made more progress than many countries, in terms of cashless transactions. Electronic payment transaction as of October last year was N272 trillion; POS transactions was over N7 trillion while mobile money transactions were almost N9 trillion. Hence, the mopping of old notes is the last thing Nigeria needs right now, at this moment, close to the 2023 general elections. The representatives of the Nigerian people, both the Senate and the House of Representatives, have appealed to the CBN Governor and, by extension, to the President, not to allow the January 31st deadline set by the apex bank to take effect. But the old General listens to no one; cares for no one not for the millions of the “talakkawas” that have no bank account, that have voted for him once, twice.
Now as they feared that they might lose their fortunes as their fathers did in the brutal, military-style regime in 1984, earlier in January 2023, the “talakkawas” started rushing to the banks. Men and women, from Adamawa to Zamfara, joined queues, depressed, to deposit their old notes and collect new ones, only to find out that they were being hoodwinked; the new notes are not available, or – perhaps – they are, at least, not available for them, but for the few politicians, the ones buying votes, the individuals that the policy is targeting.
Stories abound as to how people are suffering outside and in the banking halls as they struggle to secure their monies. Once upon a time, a POS vendor who used to make ₦10, 000 every day, is now battling to buy rice from the market, full of sellers without bank accounts. A lady trader has shut up her shop as cash is no longer in circulation. A local businessman with no bank account came begging bank staff to deposit his ₦3 million. After a few minutes of bargaining, the bankers collected ₦1 million as a bribe, opened an account for the man, and deposited his remaining ₦2 million. Just within a few days, in minutes, Nigerian fortunes are nose-diving suddenly, business owners are filing for bankruptcy, millionaires are being downgraded, and everyone is just “hustling” to survive.
This naira redesign policy did more than ripple the remaining grains in the empty kitchens of an average Nigerian. It did more than make Buhari the unsympathetic military dictator that he was; that he is. His outing in 2014 at the Chatham House, where the then candidate Muhammadu Buhari told the world that he was a “converted democrat,” was nothing but a drama by a military dictator (wearing a democratic robe), a stage-play for a candidate auditioning for Nigerian Presidency. This is typical of Buhari, always, at any time in history, a man, and a dictator, known for bringing policies that torture his subjects. Again and again, history always reminds Nigerians that Buhari’s policies are but the ultimate expression of “yin ko oho da talakka,” the evil behavior of the bourgeoisie, the ruling class not as pro-subject class, but as anti-Nigerian poor. It’s the policy decisions peculiarly Buharian that, forever more, would pit Nigerian elites against the Nigerian masses.